Fed day meets Big Tech: SPY and QQQ dealers go into the week short gamma
The Fed decides at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, Oct 28 and Microsoft reports after the close the same day. Here is how dealers are positioned in SPY, QQQ, MSFT and GOOGL from the Oct 23 close, and the move options are pricing for each.
Fed week · Oct 23, 2026 close
Dealers go into Fed day short gamma in SPY and QQQ
Watch Wednesday play out on real SPY dealer gamma from EZPZ Gamma Exposure, then pick a ticker below to explore it strike by strike.
- Fri closeFriday's close. SPY and QQQ dealers are short gamma (our estimate).
- 9:30 AMWednesday opens. Options price SPY ±1.4% into the Fed.
- 2:00 PMThe Fed decides. A shock can come from either side.
- 2:30 PMShort gamma: dealer hedging tends to stretch a move, up or down.
- 4:00 PMFed-day options expire. Those bets settle.
- After closeMicrosoft reports. The week prices SPY ±1.8% and MSFT ±5.3%.
Fed decisionWed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET
Microsoft earningsWed Oct 28, after the close
- Close
- $759.97
- This week
- −0.4%
- Priced to Fri
- ±1.8%
- Priced to Fed day
- ±1.4%
- Net gamma (est.)
- Negative
S&P 500 ETF. Dealer hedging is estimated to follow price, which can stretch a move either way. Its Oct 28 options expire at 4:00 PM ET, two hours after the Fed decision. Options price $746.15 to $773.79 to Friday.
- Close
- $704.40
- This week
- −0.8%
- Priced to Fri
- ±3.1%
- Priced to Fed day
- ±2.4%
- Net gamma (est.)
- Negative
Nasdaq 100 ETF. Dealer hedging is estimated to follow price, which can stretch a move either way. Its Oct 28 options expire at 4:00 PM ET, two hours after the Fed decision. Options price $682.66 to $726.14 to Friday.
- Close
- $524.51
- This week
- −0.9%
- Priced to Fri
- ±5.3%
- ATM IV
- 49.8%
- Net gamma (est.)
- Slightly positive
Microsoft. Dealer hedging is estimated to lean against price, which tends to damp a move. Reports after the close on Wed Oct 28, about two hours after the Fed. Options price $496.83 to $552.19 to Friday.
- Close
- $320.21
- This week
- −6.0%
- Priced to Fri
- ±6.1%
- ATM IV
- 55.4%
- Net gamma (est.)
- Near flat
Alphabet. Dealer gamma is close to zero, so hedging is not estimated to push much either way. Down 6.0% this week. Alphabet had not confirmed its report date when we wrote this. Options price $300.83 to $339.59 to Friday.
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 packs two market events into one afternoon. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, with the press conference after it, and Microsoft reports results after the close the same day. Going into that week, our gamma exposure estimate shows options dealers net short gamma in both SPY and QQQ on the Oct 30 expiry. That matters because of how dealers hedge, which this post explains, along with the move options are pricing for each name.
All figures are from the close on Friday, Oct 23, 2026. They are estimates built from the options chain and they describe positioning, not direction.
±1.4%
SPY priced to Fed day
2 hrs
Between the Fed and Microsoft
±5.3%
MSFT priced to Friday
±6.1%
GOOGL priced to Friday
Oct 23, 2026 close. Priced moves are at-the-money straddles over the close.
The week at a glance
| Ticker | Oct 23 close | Expiry | Straddle | Implied move | Implied range | ATM IV | Net gamma (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SPY | $759.97 | Wed Oct 28 | ±$10.60 | ±1.4% | $749.37 to $770.57 | 15.2% | Negative |
| $SPY | $759.97 | Fri Oct 30 | ±$13.82 | ±1.8% | $746.15 to $773.79 | 16.9% | Negative |
| $QQQ | $704.40 | Wed Oct 28 | ±$16.68 | ±2.4% | $687.72 to $721.08 | 28.1% | Negative |
| $QQQ | $704.40 | Fri Oct 30 | ±$21.74 | ±3.1% | $682.66 to $726.14 | 30.3% | Negative |
| $MSFT | $524.51 | Fri Oct 30 | ±$27.68 | ±5.3% | $496.83 to $552.19 | 49.8% | Slightly positive |
| $GOOGL | $320.21 | Fri Oct 30 | ±$19.38 | ±6.1% | $300.83 to $339.59 | 55.4% | Near flat |
Implied move is the at-the-money straddle divided by the close. The Oct 28 expiry ends at 4:00 PM ET that day, so it covers the Fed decision but not Microsoft's report. The Oct 30 expiry covers both.
Wednesday, Oct 28 · times in ET
Two events, one expiry between them
- 9:30 AM Market opens Both SPY expiries are live
- 2:00 PM Fed rate decision SPY Fed-day move: ±1.4%
- 2:30 PM Chair's press conference Still inside the Fed-day expiry
- 4:00 PM Oct 28 options expire Fed-day bets settle here
- After 4:00 PM Microsoft reports MSFT move to Fri: ±5.3%
- 5:30 PM Microsoft's call SPY move to Fri: ±1.8%
Why "short gamma" is the line to watch
Dealers who sell options usually hedge with stock. When they are net long gamma, that hedging leans against the move: they sell into rallies and buy into dips, which tends to calm a market down. When they are net short gamma, it works the other way. They buy as price rises and sell as it falls, which can stretch a move that is already under way.
Illustration, not data
Same shock, two kinds of dealer book
Short gamma: Hedging follows the move
Price drops, dealers sell more stock to stay hedged, and that selling adds to the drop. Rallies work the same way upward.
Long gamma: Hedging leans against the move
Price drops, dealers buy stock to stay hedged, and that buying cushions the drop. Rallies get sold into.
On the Oct 30 expiry, our estimate has both SPY and QQQ on the negative side going into Fed week. That does not say which way the market goes. It says that whichever way the Fed and Microsoft push it, dealer hedging is more likely to add to the move than to soak it up. You can watch this update through the day on Gamma Exposure (GEX). New to it? The GEX guide covers the basics in five minutes.
Whichever way the Fed and Microsoft push the market, short-gamma hedging is more likely to add to the move than to soak it up.
The strikes that stand out
$SPY
On the Oct 30 expiry, the largest call gamma sits at the 780 strike and the largest put gamma at 760, right at Friday's close. Open interest is heaviest at 745, 760 and 735. On the Fed-day expiry (Oct 28) the biggest call and put gamma strikes are 770 and 741, almost exactly the edges of the ±1.4% implied range.
From GEX Heatmap · Oct 23, 2026 close
Where SPY gamma is stacked, expiry by expiry
Wed Oct 28
Fri Oct 30
$QQQ
On Oct 30, the largest call gamma is at 725 and the largest put gamma at 700, about half a percent under Friday's close. Open interest clusters at 700, 690 and 675, so most of the positioning sits below the current price.
$MSFT
Microsoft reports after the close on Wednesday, Oct 28, about two hours after the Fed. Options price a ±5.3% move through Oct 30, with at-the-money IV near 50%. Open interest is heaviest at the 555, 525 and 530 strikes. Unlike the indexes, our estimate puts MSFT gamma on the Oct 30 expiry slightly positive, with the sign changing near 525.
$GOOGL
Alphabet fell 6.0% this week, from $340.59 to $320.21, the biggest drop of the four. Alphabet had not confirmed its report date when we wrote this, but the Oct 30 options are priced for an event-sized ±6.1% move. The largest call gamma is at 345 and the largest put gamma at 305, and net gamma is close to flat.
Built with EZPZ
Nothing in this post came from a spreadsheet. Every gamma bar, strike and priced range was read off four EZPZ tools, the same ones members open every morning.
How this post was made
Every number above came from four EZPZ tools
-
Gamma Exposure Pro
Net dealer gamma by strike for each ticker, and the sign of the total.
GEX guide -
GEX Heatmap Premium
The Fed-day expiry and Friday's weekly side by side, strike by strike.
Heatmap guide -
Expected Move Pro
Every implied move and price range in this post.
Free delayed page -
Trader's FieldMap Premium
The same levels as one ladder you can copy into TradingView.
Free delayed page
We asked our own AI
Charts are half the story. On Saturday, Oct 24, after Friday’s close, we put the week’s questions to the two AI analysts built into EZPZ. Below are their real answers, replayed in the same windows you see in the app.
EZRA, our research analyst
EZRA reads every expiry at once, so it found a level our single-expiry view does not show: a gamma flip at $763.50, about $3.50 above Friday’s close. Below it, EZRA estimates dealers amplify moves. Above it, they start to damp them.
Fed week, asked before it starts
The two questions we asked EZRA on Saturday, Oct 24. Each one plays its real answer, built from Friday's close. Pick one.
EZRA is about to answer.
The Fed decides Wednesday Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET and Microsoft reports after the close the same day. How are dealers positioned in SPY and QQQ going into that, and what does it mean for how big the move could be?
Researched in 7 steps
- 01Analyzing query…
- 02Fetching real-time data for MSFT, SPY, QQQ…
- 03Reading EZPZ regime for SPY…
- 04Reading EZPZ regime for QQQ…
- 05Fetching data…
- 06Fetching data…
- 07Building bar chart…
The Setup: Negative Gamma Across the Board
Both SPY and QQQ are sitting in deeply negative gamma territory. That's the single most important structural fact for Wednesday's Fed + MSFT earnings combo. In negative gamma, dealers are short gamma on net, meaning they have to CHASE moves to hedge, not fade them. [...] That amplifies volatility in both directions. There is no dealer-pinning cushion here.
SPY Levels
Gamma flip at $763.50. [...] Price is in negative gamma territory right now.
Negative gamma wall at $755 (the monster): $128.5B in put-side exposure concentrated there [...]. $762 is a secondary negative cluster.
Positive gamma wall at $765. That's the lid. If SPY reclaims $763.50 and gets through $765, dealer hedging flips supportive and the volatility compression kicks in. Until then, they're pouring gas on every move.
GEX flow is diffuse though: even $765, the biggest positive strike, holds only 2.2% of total exposure. No single strike is acting as a magnet.
IV Context
SPY's IV rank is 21.9 -- options are actually cheap relative to recent history. The market is NOT pricing a massive event day, which is interesting given the Fed AND a major earnings on the same afternoon. QQQ's IV rank is 67.9 -- the Nasdaq complex is much better priced for movement [...]
MSFT Earnings Overlay (EVENT-CROSSING flag)
MSFT reports after the close on Wednesday, Oct 28 -- the same day the Fed decides. [...] MSFT is a top-5 weight in both indices. A big MSFT earnings gap either direction will create after-hours pressure on QQQ futures, which feeds right back into the gamma dynamics at the open Thursday.
What It All Means
Negative gamma regime in BOTH SPY and QQQ means dealers amplify, not dampen, the initial directional reaction to the Fed statement. [...]
Real chat Real EZRA answers from one Swing mode chat on Sat Oct 24, 2026, after Friday's close. The text is EZRA's own words, cut at [...] where we removed trade ideas and two after-hours price quotes. EZRA reads every expiry, so its levels differ from the Oct 30 view in the hero.
AiPe, on the Gamma Exposure page
AiPe lives inside the tool page and reads exactly what is on screen. We opened SPY on Gamma Exposure, picked the Oct 30 expiry and asked two questions.
- Net GEX
- -4.1B
- Call GEX
- 1.8B
- Put GEX
- -5.9B
- Expected move (7DTE)
- ±$17.63
- Call Wall
- 780
- Put Wall
- 760
NEGATIVE MMs net short gamma (vol amplification, trend-following hedges)
Real chat Real AiPe answers on the SPY Gamma Exposure page, Oct 30 expiry, asked Sat Oct 24, 2026 from Friday's close. AiPe's own words, unedited. AiPe quotes the page’s own expected move (±$17.63, from implied volatility); the tables above use the at-the-money straddle, so the two ranges differ.
Try it yourself: EZRA gives anyone five free questions a day on delayed data. AiPe is on Pro and up, inside 100+ tool pages. Both explain the data. Neither tells you what to trade.
We will post the recap
After Friday's close we will put the implied ranges above next to what SPY, QQQ, MSFT and GOOGL actually did, and show where dealer gamma ended the week.
How we got these numbers
Every figure in this post is from real, dated data, not a model of what might happen:
- Prices: Intrinio end-of-day closes for Oct 16 and Oct 23, 2026.
- Implied moves: the at-the-money straddle on each expiry at the Oct 23 close, divided by the close.
- Gamma: the EZPZ GEX formula (gamma × open interest × price² × 0.01, calls positive, puts negative) on Friday’s closing open interest and greeks. It is an estimate that follows the common convention of dealers being long call gamma and short put gamma.
- AI answers: captured from EZRA and AiPe on Oct 24, 2026, in their own words. We cut EZRA at [...] where it offered trade ideas, because this post explains positioning and does not recommend trades.
FAQ
When is the October 2026 Fed decision?
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, at the end of the Oct 27 to 28 meeting, followed by the chair's press conference.
When does Microsoft report earnings?
After the market close on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026, with the conference call at 5:30 PM ET.
What is SPY's implied move for Fed week?
About ±1.4% (±$10.60) through the Oct 28 expiry and ±1.8% (±$13.82) through Oct 30, using at-the-money straddles at the Oct 23 close of $759.97.
What does negative gamma mean?
It means dealers are estimated to be net short gamma, so their hedging tends to follow price instead of leaning against it. That can make moves larger in either direction. It is context about positioning, not a signal to buy or sell.
Does gamma exposure predict direction?
No. It estimates how dealer hedging may react to a move. Which way the move goes depends on the news.
Data: Intrinio end-of-day prices and Oct 23, 2026 closing options chains (open interest and greeks). Gamma exposure uses the EZPZ GEX formula (gamma × open interest × price² × 0.01) on a single expiry and is an estimate. EZPZ Trading provides market data and analytics for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
