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A member guide to the math behind risk, reward, ATR stops, and market regime, built on a fixed 1:2 stop to target ratio.
The EZPZ Trend Trading Strategy is a member guide that puts risk, reward, and market regime into one rule set. Every trade risks one unit to make two, the stop and target are placed with ATR, and a trade is only taken when the market regime agrees with the direction. It scales from a $10,000 account to $1,000,000.
The idea is that edge comes from selectivity, not from a cleverer entry. A fixed 1:2 stop to target ratio means a trader who is right only one time in three breaks even, so every win rate above that is profit before any timing skill is added. ATR keeps the ratio honest by scaling the stop and target to how far a stock actually moves, instead of a fixed dollar amount. The regime filter then decides which days and setups are worth taking at all. Discipline in following all three rules on every trade is what turns the math into a result, and the guide says to respect a regime change if it happens mid session. The guide walks through the math with worked examples and a full-year illustration, and it is written for people who want a repeatable process rather than a signal to copy.
The page is a reading page, not a data table. There are no filters or tickers to load. It opens with a header that carries two buttons and four headline figures, then five numbered sections, a checklist card, and a closing note.
| Part of the page | What it holds |
|---|---|
| Download the Full PDF | Opens the long form document with every worked example. It appears in the header and again in the closing band. |
| Read the Summary Below | Jumps down to the first section. |
| Headline figures | 1:2 Stop to Target Ratio, 33.3% Breakeven Win Rate, and the Year 1 ending balances for a 50% and a 75% win rate. |
| Five sections | The risk to reward foundation, two growth paths, the market regime system, ATR based stops, and where Finn fits in. |
| Complete Entry Checklist | A five item card that combines the regime and ATR sections into one pre-trade check. |
| Premium note | Shown to members who are not on Premium, because the Intraday Market Regime is a Premium feature. |
The foundation. The stop is always half the distance of the target, so risking one dollar aims to make two, and risking two hundred aims to make four hundred. Only the dollar size changes as the account grows.
A year of trading from a $10,000 account, shown two ways with the same ratio, the same 3 trades a day, and 252 trading days. Position size starts at a percentage of the account and caps at a flat dollar amount as the account grows.
How to decide when to trade and when to sit out. The Intraday Market Regime gives one score from -100 to +100 across the 5 minute, 15 minute, and 1 hour timeframes, plus a conviction reading and previous day and previous week averages.
Where the stop and target belong. The stop sits a set multiple of ATR from entry and the target at twice that distance, so the 1:2 ratio stays exact whatever the market is doing.
A five step workflow: check the regime, skip if it is choppy, let Finn plot the ATR based 1:2 levels if it is trending, size to the current stage of the account, then let the stop and target play out.
Win rate alone does not tell you whether a system makes money. Expected value per trade is win rate times reward, minus loss rate times risk. At a 1:2 ratio a 50% win rate gives 0.5 x 2R minus 0.5 x 1R, which is +0.5R. A win rate of 33.3% gives exactly zero, and anything above it is positive. That is why the guide spends its first section on the ratio and only then adds regime and ATR.
The guide's full-year illustration starts each path at $10,000 with 3 trades a day over 252 trading days.
| Scenario | Year 1 with compounding | Conservative floor, no compounding |
|---|---|---|
| 50% win rate (coin flip) | $347,126 | $85,600 |
| 75% win rate (regime filtered) | $913,524 | $199,000 |
The no compounding column uses a flat $200 stop and $400 target on every trade. At 50% that is $100 of expected value per trade over 756 trades, which is the $75,600 profit behind the $85,600 balance. At 75% it is $250 per trade, or $189,000.
ATR is average true range, a measure of how much a stock typically moves in one bar. A fixed stop treats every stock and every day the same. An ATR stop scales to the instrument, so risk stays consistent across quiet and wild names. The strategy sets the stop at 1x ATR from entry and the target at 2x ATR, using the ATR on the 15 minute timeframe.
A worked example from the guide: a stock has an ATR(14) of $2.50 and you go long at $100.00.
| Level | Calculation | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | Entry price | $100.00 |
| Stop Loss | 1x ATR below entry | $97.50 |
| Take Profit | 2x ATR above entry | $105.00 |
Risk is $2.50 and reward is $5.00, so the ratio is exactly 1:2. ATR tells you where the levels go. Your account rules tell you how many shares make that risk the right dollar amount. The session by session multiplier adjustments, the indicator settings, and the entry checklist wording are inside the member guide, so log in to read them.
This page is a documented framework with worked math, not a screener or a live score. Two other Stocks Strategies pages are about trend as well. Retail Trend Navigator and Market Trend Signals are data pages you scan, Stocks Outperforming is a table of stocks against a pinned SPY row, and Relative Strength (RS) Ranking ranks stocks against SPY over four windows. Weighted Alpha ranks stocks by a recency-leaning momentum score. Historical Weighted Alpha charts that score for one ticker over time. Volatility Deviations lists stocks whose move today is unusual for their own normal range. This one teaches sizing, stops, and when to stand aside. Peter Lynch Fundamental Screener is a different kind of page, a fundamental screen on P/E, debt and earnings growth. WarriorTrading Setup is a live intraday scanner for gappers on unusual volume, a much shorter horizon than the swing framework here.
The regime step in the strategy uses the Intraday Market Regime score. To see how that page reads on its own, and how the ticker view and the leaderboard differ, open the Intraday Regime Leaderboard guide. For confirming trend direction with indicators, see Technical Analysis.
Traders who size by feel
The guide replaces "how much should I risk" with a fixed ratio and a dollar amount tied to the stage of the account.
Traders who cut winners early
Fixing the target at twice the stop makes the cost of an early exit visible in the math.
Traders who overtrade chop
The regime step gives a clear reason to skip a day, with no exceptions.
TradingView users
The EZPZ ATR Stop/Profit indicator draws the stop and target on the chart at the exact ATR distances.
The ratio makes the system profitable, the regime filter makes it more profitable, and ATR based levels put the stop where the market respects it. It is a discipline framework, not a trade signal, and it does not promise returns. Members can log in to read the full summary and download the PDF.
