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Expected Move
The range the options market is pricing in for a stock by a given date, derived directly from options premiums rather than a guess.
What is expected move?
Expected move is the range the options market is pricing for a ticker by a listed expiration. On EZPZ, Expected Move is a searchable chart of DEM and VEM price bands by expiration, plus an Expiration Data table. Symbol and Go load the name. Expiry Dates starts at 5. Choices include 10, 15, 20, 30, and All.
On EZPZ, the live page title is Expected Move. The ticker line shows the symbol plus last price. The screenshot uses SPY at $761.69. Symbol placeholder is Search ticker. Go loads the name. Enter in that box also loads it. Expiry Dates starts at 5. Choices are 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, and All. The chart title is Expected Move by Expiration, DEM and VEM Price Bands. Current Price is a dashed gray line. Upper Price(DEM) and Upper Price(VEM) sit above it. Lower Price(DEM) and Lower Price(VEM) sit below it. 2 SD Upper Price(DEM), 2 SD Upper Price(VEM), 2 SD Lower Price(VEM), and 2 SD Lower Price(DEM) are the wider dashed series. The y-axis label is Stock Price Movement. Expiration Data is the table under that chart. Columns opens General, DEM (Demand-Based), VEM (IVx-Based), and Volatility. Definitions under the table names 1 Sigma EM, 2 Sigma EM, VEM (IVx-based Expected Move), and DEM (Demand-Based Expected Move).
On EZPZ, this page is the DEM and VEM band chart for any ticker you search. Market Maker Exposure is the SPX Flip Level chart with Call Wall, Put Wall, and Expected Move(VEM) and DEM on candles, not this expiration ladder. Gamma Exposure is the searchable strike table with Call Wall, Put Wall, Spot Price, and expected move badges. Ticker Explorer puts IVx Expected Move (VEM) and Expected Move (DEM) cards on a one-symbol dashboard. Option Chain is the listed book, where expected move sits on metrics for one expiry. Market Cross Flow is the SPY, SPXW, and QQQ GEX grid next to candles. Greeks Heatmap is the strike-by-expiration grid with Gravity Magnet Score. Option Depth Flow is the searchable strike-by-time Bubble or Gradient chart. Largest Premium By Tickers is the Bullish Flow / Bearish Flow premium leaderboard when you do not have a ticker yet. Index Trader is the index dashboard with Premium Traffic Lights. Top 20 Optionable ranks listed-option names by Vol. * Price. Market Wave is the Current Day chart of Net Call Premium versus Net Put Premium. Net Flow Graph is one ticker you search with Filter ticker, plus Cumulative Volume Delta. Historical Net Premium is the 15D Cumulative lookback with a daily table. 0DTE Graph is the same-day premium chart with Filter ticker. The 0DTE dropdown is the lock. Weekly-DTE Graph is the WTE chart of premium that expires by Friday. 7-DTE Graph is the 7DTE chart of premium in the next 7 days. Supply and Demand X-ray is the ITM Call and Put chart of Price, Supply, and Demand. Money Sentiment is Bought Ratio, Net Sentiment, and Netflow Graph for one ticker. Net Premium Heatmap is the strike-by-expiration grid of Net Premium for one ticker. Movers and Shakers Tide is that same chart job for about 18 mega-cap names. GEX Heatmap is the strike-by-expiration GEX grid with a GEX Details table. GEX and DEX is the Intraday GEX and DEX chart pair with Gamma Flip. Spot Gamma and Delta is the ($) Open Interest versus ($) Volume bar pair with a Spot line. Live Flow is the tape of prints. Unusual Activity keeps only large, sweep, and block prints. Unusual Activity Intraday is the session scan with a date range. $1M Plus Flow keeps only million-dollar premium. 0DTE Flow keeps only prints that expire today. SPX and SPY Flow locks the tape to SPX, SPXW, and SPY. Put to Call Ratio is the Intraday Put/Call Ratio chart of Traded PCR, OI PCR, and Sentiment PCR. Max Pain is Intraday Max Pain with O-Max Pain, P-Max Pain, and V-Max Pain. Open Interest Scan is the OI per Strike and OI per Expiration chart pair. Volume Scan is the Volume by Strike and Volume by Expiration chart pair. Volatility Analysis is Volatility By Open Interest, Open Interest, and Implied Volatility Smile for one ticker. IV Rank Explorer is Current IV (30D), IV Rank (1Y), period IV Rank, and IV Percentile (1Y) plus the IV Rank chart. Historical Volatility is 10D through 90D Volatility versus Price. Volatility Surface 3D is Raw Contracts and Smoothed Mesh for one ticker.
How Expected Move works on EZPZ
Search a ticker, leave Expiry Dates on 5, then read Current Price against the nearest DEM and VEM bands. It is not a score. Most people start with Upper Price(DEM) and Upper Price(VEM) on the first few expirations. If those two disagree, open Expiration Data and compare EXPECTED MOVE (DEM) with EXPECTED MOVE (VEM) on the same row. Widen Expiry Dates to All only if you want the longer ladder. Open Columns if you want 2 SD EM, 2 SD Upper, or 2 SD Lower. Read Definitions if you want 1 Sigma EM and 2 Sigma EM again.
How this differs from Market Maker Exposure
Market Maker Exposure is locked to SPX. Flip Level, Call Wall, and Put Wall sit on cards. Expected Move(VEM) and Expected Move(DEM) paint bands on candles next to gamma bars. This page is any ticker. There is no Flip Level and no wall table. The x-axis is expiration date, not strike. Use Market Maker Exposure when you want SPX dealer bars. Use this page when you want DEM versus VEM by expiration. Use Gamma Exposure when you want expected-move badges on a strike map. Use Ticker Explorer when you want VEM and DEM cards next to quote and unusual activity. Use Option Chain when you want the listed book for one expiry. Use Spot Gamma and Delta when you want ($) Open Interest versus ($) Volume stacked under a Spot line. Use GEX and DEX when you want Gamma Flip. Use GEX Heatmap when you want pinning versus volatility cells. Use Greeks Heatmap when you want Gravity Magnet Score. Use Market Cross Flow when you want SPY, SPXW, and QQQ side by side. Use Option Depth Flow when you want strike by time. Use Largest Premium By Tickers when you still need a name from Bullish Flow or Bearish Flow. Use Index Trader when you want traffic lights. Use Top 20 Optionable when you want Vol. * Price rank. Use Market Wave when you want Current Day Net Call Premium versus Net Put Premium. Use Net Flow Graph when you want Filter ticker plus Cumulative Volume Delta. Use Historical Net Premium when you want the 15D table. Use 0DTE Graph when you want same-day premium. Use Weekly-DTE Graph when you want Friday. Use 7-DTE Graph when you want the next 7 days. Use Supply and Demand X-ray when you want Price, Supply, and Demand. Use Money Sentiment when you want Bought Ratio and Net Sentiment. Use Net Premium Heatmap when you want the strike-by-expiration grid. Use Movers and Shakers Tide when you want the 18-name basket. Use Live Flow when you want the prints.
Anatomy of the chart and table
You do not need every series on every session. Use the tabs if you want a map of the fields.
The card title is Expected Move by Expiration, DEM & VEM Price Bands. The y-axis label is Stock Price Movement.
| On the chart | What you are looking at |
|---|---|
| Current Price | Dashed gray line. Last price, held across every expiration on the x-axis. |
| Upper Price(DEM) Lower Price(DEM) | Demand-based band around last price for that expiration. |
| Upper Price(VEM) Lower Price(VEM) | IVx-based band around last price for that expiration. |
| 2 SD Upper Price(DEM) 2 SD Lower Price(DEM) | Wider DEM band. Definitions call this 2 Sigma EM. |
| 2 SD Upper Price(VEM) 2 SD Lower Price(VEM) | Wider VEM band. Same 2 Sigma idea on the IVx series. |
The table label is Expiration Data. Columns sits at the right of that bar.
| Column | What you are looking at |
|---|---|
| EXPIRATION DTE | Listed date, then days to expiration. DTE prints with a d suffix, such as 2d. |
| EXPECTED MOVE (DEM) EXPECTED MOVE (DEM)% | Demand-based move as plus or minus dollars, then as a percent. |
| UPPER PRICE (DEM) LOWER PRICE (DEM) | DEM high and low around last price. |
| EXPECTED MOVE (VEM) EXPECTED MOVE (VEM)% | IVx-based move as dollars, then as a percent. |
| UPPER PRICE (VEM) LOWER PRICE (VEM) | VEM high and low around last price. |
| IVx | Implied volatility for that expiration. Columns groups this under Volatility. |
Columns groups fields. Definitions sits under the table.
| On the page | What you are looking at |
|---|---|
| General | DTE. |
| DEM (Demand-Based) | Expected Move, EM %, Upper Price, Lower Price, 2 SD EM, 2 SD Upper, and 2 SD Lower. |
| VEM (IVx-Based) | The same seven fields on the IVx series. |
| Volatility | IVx. |
| 1 Sigma EM | Definitions: 1 standard deviation move equals about 68% probability the stock stays within that range. |
| 2 Sigma EM | Definitions: 2 standard deviation move equals about 95% probability the stock stays within that range. |
| VEM (IVx-based Expected Move) | Definitions: a volatility-based expected move derived from IVx and time to expiration. |
| DEM (Demand-Based Expected Move) | Definitions: an expected move from actual options pricing relative to historical past, reflecting option market demand and positioning. |
Toolbar
- Symbol: Type a ticker. Placeholder is Search ticker.
- Go: Loads the name. Enter in the search box also loads it.
- Expiry Dates: How many listed dates the chart uses. 5 starts selected. Choices are 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, and All. The screenshot uses All.
- Columns: Show or hide Expiration Data fields. General, DEM (Demand-Based), VEM (IVx-Based), and Volatility.
Controls on this page
The bar under the ticker has Symbol, Go, and Expiry Dates. Columns sits on Expiration Data. Use those controls to change the ladder. Do not treat them as a score.
- Symbol / Go: Load another name.
- Expiry Dates: 5 starts selected. Options are 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, and All.
- Columns: Toggle DTE, DEM fields, VEM fields, and IVx.
How people actually use it
Read Current Price, then the nearest bands
Check the ticker line. Find Current Price on the chart. Then compare Upper Price(DEM) with Upper Price(VEM) on the first expiration.
Leave Expiry Dates on 5 first
Most sessions start on 5. Widen to 10, 20, or All only if you want more dates on the x-axis.
Use Expiration Data when DEM and VEM split
If the two upper lines disagree, read EXPECTED MOVE (DEM) and EXPECTED MOVE (VEM) on that date. IVx sits on the same row.
Use it next to walls and the tape
This page is the band ladder. Open Gamma Exposure if you want walls. Open Live Flow if a date makes you want the prints.